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12 of 12 matches with xG: 39 goals from 41.6 xG (0.94 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby 3–1 Bolton | 2.16–1.92 | 44% · 20% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Bristol City 0–5 Norwich | 1.75–3.04 | 20% · 16% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Portsmouth 1–2 Stoke City | 0.70–0.88 | 27% · 35% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Wrexham 1–1 Wolves | 1.21–1.47 | 31% · 26% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Birmingham 2–1 Swansea | 2.99–1.11 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Blackburn 2–1 West Ham | 1.01–1.36 | 28% · 27% · 45% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Cardiff 5–4 Burnley | 4.65–2.40 | 74% · 11% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Charlton 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.25–1.02 | 42% · 28% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Charlton |
| Preston 1–0 Southampton | 1.44–1.94 | 29% · 22% · 49% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| QPR 2–1 Lincoln | 1.78–1.54 | 44% · 23% · 34% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Watford 0–0 Middlesbrough | 0.44–2.05 | 7% · 18% · 76% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 76% |
| West Brom 3–0 Millwall | 3.02–0.43 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.