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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 30.3 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton 1–0 AFC Wimbledon | 0.74–0.04 | 51% · 47% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Cardiff 2–1 Peterborough | 1.41–0.97 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Blackpool 2–3 Stevenage | 0.84–1.54 | 20% · 26% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Bradford 2–1 Wycombe | 2.30–1.11 | 64% · 19% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Burton Albion 2–1 Mansfield Town | 0.79–1.30 | 23% · 29% · 49% | Won against the xG: Burton Albion |
| Doncaster 1–0 Exeter City | 2.58–0.28 | 87% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Huddersfield 3–0 Leyton Orient | 2.40–0.94 | 70% · 17% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Lincoln 2–0 Reading | 1.04–0.26 | 56% · 35% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Plymouth 1–3 Barnsley | 1.49–1.59 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Barnsley |
| Rotherham 2–1 Port Vale | 1.08–2.14 | 18% · 20% · 62% | Won against the xG: Rotherham |
| Wigan 3–1 Northampton | 2.01–1.45 | 51% · 22% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Wigan |
| Stockport County 2–0 Bolton | 1.02–1.01 | 35% · 31% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.