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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 23.4 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale 0–0 Cardiff | 0.79–0.16 | 49% · 44% · 7% | Draw in line with xG |
| Peterborough 0–2 Luton | 0.34–1.16 | 11% · 32% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Reading 0–2 Huddersfield | 0.73–0.78 | 30% · 37% · 33% | Close call, Huddersfield won |
| AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Lincoln | 1.74–0.20 | 76% · 20% · 4% | Win in line with xG for AFC Wimbledon |
| Barnsley 3–2 Burton Albion | 1.57–1.64 | 37% · 23% · 40% | Close call, Barnsley won |
| Bolton 2–0 Plymouth | 0.77–0.25 | 45% · 43% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
| Exeter City 4–1 Blackpool | 2.33–0.96 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Exeter City |
| Leyton Orient 2–0 Wigan | 1.10–0.12 | 62% · 34% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Mansfield Town 1–2 Doncaster | 0.77–2.29 | 11% · 17% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Northampton 0–0 Bradford | 0.16–1.00 | 6% · 37% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Bradford had 58% |
| Stevenage 1–0 Rotherham | 2.15–0.04 | 87% · 12% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Wycombe 1–2 Stockport County | 1.66–0.74 | 59% · 24% · 16% | Won against the xG: Stockport County |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.