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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 37.0 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reading 1–0 Stevenage | 0.40–0.94 | 15% · 37% · 48% | Won against the xG: Reading |
| Northampton 2–1 Mansfield Town | 1.60–0.49 | 65% · 24% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Northampton |
| Wycombe 4–1 Leyton Orient | 1.86–2.01 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Close call, Wycombe won |
| Bolton 4–0 Port Vale | 1.00–1.11 | 32% · 30% · 38% | Close call, Bolton won |
| Bradford 1–2 Burton Albion | 1.87–2.31 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Burton Albion |
| Doncaster 1–2 Barnsley | 1.27–0.68 | 51% · 29% · 20% | Won against the xG: Barnsley |
| Exeter City 1–1 Wigan | 1.36–2.67 | 18% · 17% · 65% | Draw against the xG: Wigan had 65% |
| Huddersfield 3–1 Plymouth | 2.08–0.51 | 74% · 18% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Peterborough 5–0 AFC Wimbledon | 3.29–0.74 | 85% · 10% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Peterborough |
| Rotherham 3–0 Lincoln | 0.62–1.18 | 19% · 31% · 50% | Won against the xG: Rotherham |
| Stockport County 0–3 Luton | 2.04–1.13 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Won against the xG: Luton |
| Blackpool 3–1 Cardiff | 2.75–3.05 | 37% · 17% · 46% | Close call, Blackpool won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.