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5 of 12 matches with xG: 7 goals from 12.1 xG (0.58 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion 1–0 Blackpool | 0.28–1.00 | 10% · 36% · 54% | Won against the xG: Burton Albion |
| Leyton Orient 2–1 Exeter City | 1.46–1.86 | 30% · 22% · 47% | Close call, Leyton Orient won |
| Lincoln 2–1 Doncaster | 0.54–3.05 | 4% · 10% · 87% | Won against the xG: Lincoln |
| Luton 0–0 Rotherham | 0.32–0.13 | 25% · 66% · 9% | Draw in line with xG |
| Port Vale 0–0 Wycombe | 1.17–2.29 | 18% · 19% · 62% | Draw against the xG: Wycombe had 62% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.