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11 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 26.7 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough 3–0 Stockport County | 1.33–0.62 | 54% · 29% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Peterborough |
| Port Vale 0–1 Plymouth | 1.43–0.61 | 57% · 27% · 16% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| AFC Wimbledon 1–2 Wigan | 0.79–2.37 | 11% · 17% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Wigan |
| Barnsley 5–0 Luton | 2.91–0.29 | 90% · 8% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Barnsley |
| Bolton 0–0 Bradford | 1.98–0.78 | 66% · 21% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Bolton had 66% |
| Leyton Orient 1–1 Blackpool | 1.27–1.40 | 34% · 26% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mansfield Town 1–3 Huddersfield | 0.47–2.30 | 6% · 15% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Reading 1–1 Rotherham | 1.01–0.84 | 39% · 32% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stevenage 0–0 Doncaster | 0.22–1.08 | 8% · 34% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Doncaster had 58% |
| Wycombe 3–2 Lincoln | 1.74–1.04 | 54% · 24% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
| Northampton 1–3 Cardiff | 1.54–0.65 | 59% · 26% · 16% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.