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11 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 32.1 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool 0–3 Reading | 1.11–3.98 | 6% · 8% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Bradford 1–0 Exeter City | 1.58–1.61 | 38% · 23% · 39% | Close call, Bradford won |
| Burton Albion 0–4 Leyton Orient | 0.35–0.90 | 14% · 38% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Doncaster 2–1 Peterborough | 0.52–0.81 | 22% · 39% · 39% | Won against the xG: Doncaster |
| Huddersfield 3–3 AFC Wimbledon | 2.93–1.98 | 58% · 17% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 58% |
| Lincoln 1–0 Port Vale | 0.96–0.68 | 41% · 34% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Luton 1–1 Bolton | 1.08–1.27 | 31% · 28% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 0–3 Northampton | 1.17–1.81 | 25% · 23% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Northampton |
| Rotherham 1–1 Wycombe | 1.38–2.20 | 24% · 20% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Wycombe had 56% |
| Wigan 0–0 Stevenage | 1.04–0.71 | 43% · 33% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 3–0 Mansfield Town | 3.90–0.18 | 96% · 3% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.