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4 of 12 matches with xG: 11 goals from 12.8 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan 1–0 Burton Albion | 1.63–1.08 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Wigan |
| Lincoln 3–1 Barnsley | 2.14–1.43 | 54% · 21% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Reading 1–2 Peterborough | 1.74–1.21 | 50% · 24% · 27% | Won against the xG: Peterborough |
| Rotherham 0–3 Blackpool | 2.03–1.49 | 50% · 21% · 28% | Won against the xG: Blackpool |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.