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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 33.8 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Mansfield Town | 0.23–0.78 | 10% · 43% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Wigan | 0.81–0.79 | 33% · 35% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Barnsley 3–2 Leyton Orient | 1.92–2.06 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Close call, Barnsley won |
| Blackpool 2–2 Lincoln | 3.55–0.46 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Blackpool had 92% |
| Bolton 2–1 Exeter City | 2.42–0.13 | 88% · 10% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
| Bradford 2–0 Reading | 1.15–0.66 | 48% · 31% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Burton Albion 0–0 Wycombe | 1.19–1.16 | 37% · 28% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Luton 2–2 Port Vale | 1.18–1.00 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Peterborough 2–1 Northampton | 4.08–1.33 | 84% · 9% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Peterborough |
| Plymouth 1–0 Rotherham | 0.50–1.97 | 8% · 19% · 73% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| Stockport County 1–3 Stevenage | 1.29–0.80 | 48% · 29% · 23% | Won against the xG: Stevenage |
| Cardiff 4–3 Doncaster | 2.34–1.95 | 47% · 20% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.