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12 of 12 matches with xG: 41 goals from 37.6 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reading 3–2 Luton | 1.07–1.22 | 32% · 28% · 40% | Close call, Reading won |
| Northampton 3–1 AFC Wimbledon | 1.47–2.54 | 21% · 18% · 61% | Won against the xG: Northampton |
| Stevenage 2–2 Burton Albion | 1.64–1.63 | 39% · 23% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wigan 0–2 Blackpool | 2.67–1.16 | 69% · 16% · 14% | Won against the xG: Blackpool |
| Doncaster 1–5 Plymouth | 0.71–2.59 | 8% · 14% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Exeter City 3–0 Barnsley | 1.93–0.79 | 64% · 21% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Exeter City |
| Leyton Orient 2–1 Bradford | 2.13–1.38 | 55% · 21% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Mansfield Town 1–2 Stockport County | 2.16–0.65 | 72% · 18% · 10% | Won against the xG: Stockport County |
| Port Vale 0–1 Peterborough | 1.47–1.46 | 38% · 25% · 37% | Close call, Peterborough won |
| Rotherham 1–3 Huddersfield | 0.23–1.83 | 4% · 19% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Wycombe 2–1 Bolton | 0.67–1.78 | 14% · 22% · 64% | Won against the xG: Wycombe |
| Lincoln 2–1 Cardiff | 1.88–2.54 | 29% · 19% · 53% | Won against the xG: Lincoln |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.