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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 36.0 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Stevenage | 0.21–0.58 | 11% · 51% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Barnsley 2–3 Mansfield Town | 0.86–1.73 | 18% · 24% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Mansfield Town |
| Blackpool 1–0 Doncaster | 2.11–1.17 | 59% · 21% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Blackpool |
| Bolton 2–1 Rotherham | 2.79–2.68 | 43% · 17% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
| Bradford 2–1 Wigan | 1.10–0.58 | 48% · 33% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Burton Albion 5–1 Northampton | 2.72–0.98 | 74% · 15% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Burton Albion |
| Huddersfield 5–0 Port Vale | 2.56–0.63 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Luton 4–0 Wycombe | 2.60–0.10 | 91% · 9% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Peterborough 1–0 Leyton Orient | 1.27–0.64 | 52% · 30% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Peterborough |
| Plymouth 1–4 Reading | 1.21–2.71 | 15% · 16% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Stockport County 1–2 Lincoln | 1.86–1.90 | 39% · 21% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Cardiff 1–0 Exeter City | 2.38–0.64 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.