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6 of 12 matches with xG: 18 goals from 20.5 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield 2–0 Northampton | 2.61–0.62 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Luton 3–0 Leyton Orient | 2.36–0.94 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Peterborough 1–1 Reading | 3.08–0.55 | 87% · 9% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Peterborough had 87% |
| Plymouth 1–1 Wycombe | 1.40–1.03 | 45% · 27% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stockport County 4–2 Doncaster | 2.93–1.73 | 62% · 17% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Cardiff 2–1 Stevenage | 2.80–0.41 | 86% · 10% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.