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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 40.5 xG (0.84 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln 3–1 Stockport County | 3.24–1.12 | 78% · 12% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Rotherham 2–2 Bolton | 1.14–2.94 | 12% · 14% · 74% | Draw against the xG: Bolton had 74% |
| Doncaster 2–1 Blackpool | 1.58–1.69 | 36% · 23% · 41% | Close call, Doncaster won |
| Leyton Orient 2–1 Peterborough | 1.78–1.55 | 43% · 23% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Mansfield Town 2–2 Barnsley | 2.83–1.45 | 66% · 16% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Mansfield Town had 66% |
| Northampton 0–2 Burton Albion | 1.29–2.77 | 15% · 16% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Burton Albion |
| Port Vale 0–0 Huddersfield | 0.86–2.71 | 9% · 14% · 76% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 76% |
| Reading 2–2 Plymouth | 1.31–1.38 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stevenage 1–0 AFC Wimbledon | 1.47–0.52 | 61% · 26% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Wigan 2–0 Bradford | 0.38–0.56 | 20% · 48% · 32% | Close call, Wigan won |
| Wycombe 1–2 Luton | 2.61–0.96 | 73% · 16% · 12% | Won against the xG: Luton |
| Exeter City 0–4 Cardiff | 0.67–3.70 | 3% · 7% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.