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8 of 12 matches with xG: 22 goals from 23.3 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield 1–0 Rotherham | 0.65–1.37 | 18% · 28% · 54% | Won against the xG: Huddersfield |
| Barnsley 2–1 Exeter City | 0.72–0.63 | 33% · 39% · 28% | Close call, Barnsley won |
| Bolton 3–2 Wycombe | 2.52–2.42 | 43% · 18% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
| Bradford 2–1 Leyton Orient | 2.24–0.45 | 78% · 16% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Burton Albion 0–1 Stevenage | 0.21–1.07 | 7% · 34% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Luton 2–3 Reading | 1.83–1.98 | 36% · 21% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Plymouth 2–1 Doncaster | 2.66–1.15 | 69% · 16% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Northampton | 1.90–1.46 | 48% · 22% · 30% | Win in line with xG for AFC Wimbledon |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.