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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 44.5 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient 1–3 Barnsley | 1.24–1.35 | 34% · 26% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Barnsley |
| Northampton 1–1 Peterborough | 2.00–1.18 | 56% · 22% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Northampton had 56% |
| Exeter City 1–5 Bolton | 1.41–4.69 | 5% · 7% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
| Lincoln 4–0 Blackpool | 3.58–0.62 | 90% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Mansfield Town 2–2 AFC Wimbledon | 2.69–2.29 | 48% · 18% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Port Vale 1–1 Luton | 1.55–2.34 | 25% · 20% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Luton had 55% |
| Reading 2–1 Bradford | 1.24–1.32 | 35% · 27% · 39% | Close call, Reading won |
| Rotherham 1–0 Plymouth | 2.66–1.47 | 63% · 17% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Rotherham |
| Stevenage 2–1 Stockport County | 2.32–0.90 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Wigan 1–0 Huddersfield | 0.88–2.33 | 13% · 18% · 70% | Won against the xG: Wigan |
| Wycombe 3–0 Burton Albion | 1.19–0.85 | 44% · 30% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
| Doncaster 0–4 Cardiff | 2.09–2.33 | 36% · 19% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.