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6 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 23.0 xG (1.17 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth 5–2 Cardiff | 2.67–2.21 | 49% · 18% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| AFC Wimbledon 3–1 Bradford | 1.45–0.33 | 66% · 26% · 8% | Win in line with xG for AFC Wimbledon |
| Bolton 2–2 Blackpool | 3.96–3.23 | 53% · 15% · 32% | Draw against the xG: Bolton had 53% |
| Huddersfield 2–1 Barnsley | 1.70–0.88 | 57% · 24% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Northampton 1–2 Leyton Orient | 1.86–1.60 | 44% · 22% · 34% | Close call, Leyton Orient won |
| Peterborough 3–3 Exeter City | 1.47–1.66 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.