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8 of 12 matches with xG: 16 goals from 22.8 xG (0.70 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton 1–1 Stockport County | 1.20–0.98 | 41% · 29% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Barnsley 0–1 Doncaster | 1.41–1.48 | 36% · 25% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Leyton Orient 2–0 Wycombe | 1.84–0.88 | 60% · 22% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Lincoln 3–0 Rotherham | 1.90–0.26 | 78% · 18% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Plymouth 3–1 Huddersfield | 4.83–1.32 | 89% · 6% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Port Vale 1–0 Bolton | 1.72–0.41 | 70% · 22% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Port Vale |
| Stevenage 1–0 Reading | 1.66–0.34 | 71% · 22% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Wigan 2–0 Exeter City | 1.06–1.50 | 27% · 26% · 47% | Won against the xG: Wigan |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.