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6 of 12 matches with xG: 16 goals from 19.9 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool 1–0 Burton Albion | 1.19–0.05 | 68% · 31% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Blackpool |
| Exeter City 0–0 Leyton Orient | 1.65–1.43 | 43% · 24% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Reading 3–0 Wigan | 2.09–0.82 | 67% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Wycombe 4–0 Port Vale | 2.83–0.77 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
| Bolton 5–1 Stevenage | 3.14–1.29 | 74% · 14% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Cardiff | 3.40–1.20 | 79% · 12% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 79% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.