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8 of 12 matches with xG: 21 goals from 24.5 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon 0–3 Luton | 0.36–2.79 | 3% · 10% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Barnsley 0–3 Plymouth | 1.18–3.42 | 9% · 12% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Bolton 2–2 Stockport County | 1.43–1.85 | 30% · 23% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Exeter City 3–0 Doncaster | 1.23–2.65 | 16% · 17% · 68% | Won against the xG: Exeter City |
| Leyton Orient 1–2 Huddersfield | 0.30–1.85 | 5% · 19% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Stevenage 1–0 Blackpool | 1.86–0.29 | 76% · 19% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Wycombe 1–2 Bradford | 1.57–1.74 | 35% · 23% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Port Vale 1–0 Rotherham | 0.72–1.25 | 21% · 30% · 49% | Won against the xG: Port Vale |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.