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10 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 33.2 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln 2–1 Leyton Orient | 2.12–1.80 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Plymouth 2–2 Exeter City | 4.75–1.06 | 92% · 5% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Plymouth had 92% |
| Cardiff 2–0 Bolton | 1.89–0.49 | 71% · 20% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Blackpool 3–1 Peterborough | 2.15–0.97 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Blackpool |
| Bradford 0–1 Stevenage | 1.64–0.26 | 73% · 22% · 5% | Won against the xG: Stevenage |
| Burton Albion 1–0 AFC Wimbledon | 2.46–0.28 | 85% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Burton Albion |
| Doncaster 1–0 Reading | 1.80–1.22 | 51% · 23% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Huddersfield 3–3 Wycombe | 2.90–1.23 | 72% · 15% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 72% |
| Rotherham 1–3 Barnsley | 1.44–1.32 | 40% · 25% · 35% | Close call, Barnsley won |
| Wigan 2–1 Mansfield Town | 1.57–1.84 | 33% · 22% · 44% | Close call, Wigan won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.