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10 of 12 matches with xG: 39 goals from 38.5 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley 2–2 Bradford | 1.34–1.93 | 27% · 22% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Bradford had 51% |
| Bolton 3–3 Huddersfield | 1.54–1.98 | 30% · 22% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| AFC Wimbledon 1–3 Plymouth | 1.52–3.61 | 12% · 12% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Exeter City 3–3 Stockport County | 3.09–3.69 | 33% · 15% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Stockport County had 51% |
| Leyton Orient 0–2 Rotherham | 1.17–1.26 | 34% · 27% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Rotherham |
| Mansfield Town 2–2 Luton | 1.54–3.76 | 11% · 12% · 77% | Draw against the xG: Luton had 77% |
| Northampton 1–3 Doncaster | 0.99–3.02 | 9% · 13% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Stevenage 2–2 Lincoln | 0.89–0.81 | 35% · 34% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wycombe 0–1 Blackpool | 2.03–0.65 | 70% · 19% · 11% | Won against the xG: Blackpool |
| Reading 1–3 Cardiff | 2.36–1.35 | 60% · 19% · 21% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.