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11 of 12 matches with xG: 36 goals from 40.8 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster 1–1 Stevenage | 2.21–1.06 | 63% · 19% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Doncaster had 63% |
| Stockport County 3–1 Peterborough | 3.59–1.65 | 74% · 13% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Blackpool 1–0 Leyton Orient | 2.50–1.05 | 69% · 17% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Blackpool |
| Burton Albion 1–1 Exeter City | 2.27–1.10 | 64% · 19% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Burton Albion had 64% |
| Huddersfield 1–4 Mansfield Town | 1.05–1.15 | 33% · 29% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Mansfield Town |
| Lincoln 4–3 Wycombe | 2.14–3.64 | 20% · 14% · 66% | Won against the xG: Lincoln |
| Luton 2–1 Barnsley | 3.18–2.14 | 59% · 16% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Plymouth 2–1 Port Vale | 2.00–1.21 | 56% · 22% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Rotherham 1–1 Reading | 1.56–0.89 | 53% · 25% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Rotherham had 53% |
| Wigan 0–1 AFC Wimbledon | 1.07–0.60 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Won against the xG: AFC Wimbledon |
| Cardiff 5–1 Northampton | 3.73–1.01 | 85% · 9% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.