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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 37.8 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford 0–3 Huddersfield | 0.89–1.72 | 19% · 24% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Leyton Orient 3–0 Cambridge United | 2.11–2.00 | 42% · 20% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Plymouth 0–0 Reading | 0.87–1.15 | 28% · 30% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Barnsley 1–1 Oxford United | 0.92–2.70 | 10% · 15% · 75% | Draw against the xG: Oxford United had 75% |
| Leicester 2–2 Stevenage | 2.12–1.20 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 58% |
| Mansfield Town 0–2 Notts County | 1.61–1.06 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Won against the xG: Notts County |
| Milton Keynes Dons 6–1 Doncaster | 4.00–0.72 | 91% · 6% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Peterborough 0–2 Luton | 1.02–1.44 | 27% · 27% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Stockport County 2–1 AFC Wimbledon | 2.85–1.01 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Wigan 3–2 Bromley | 2.42–1.84 | 51% · 19% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Wigan |
| Wycombe 2–0 Burton Albion | 1.31–0.87 | 47% · 28% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Blackpool | 0.71–1.22 | 22% · 30% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.