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12 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 32.3 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield 2–1 Wigan | 3.08–0.54 | 87% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Luton 2–1 Leicester | 1.68–1.09 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Wycombe | 1.57–1.55 | 39% · 24% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackpool 1–4 Mansfield Town | 1.15–1.92 | 23% · 22% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Mansfield Town |
| Bromley 1–1 Peterborough | 0.74–1.27 | 22% · 29% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Burton Albion 2–1 Leyton Orient | 1.12–0.75 | 44% · 31% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Burton Albion |
| Cambridge United 2–3 Plymouth | 1.46–1.53 | 36% · 24% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Doncaster 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.30–1.26 | 38% · 27% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Notts County 1–1 Stockport County | 0.38–2.56 | 4% · 12% · 84% | Draw against the xG: Stockport County had 84% |
| Oxford United 0–0 Bradford | 1.72–1.45 | 44% · 23% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Reading 2–1 Barnsley | 0.89–0.77 | 36% · 34% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Stevenage 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.53–1.96 | 9% · 19% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.