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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 34.4 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon 0–3 Mansfield Town | 0.48–1.99 | 8% · 19% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Mansfield Town |
| Blackpool 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.75–0.96 | 27% · 34% · 39% | Close call, Blackpool won |
| Bromley 0–4 Leicester | 0.26–2.35 | 3% · 13% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Burton Albion 0–0 Bradford | 1.38–1.45 | 36% · 25% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cambridge United 2–2 Wycombe | 0.82–1.28 | 24% · 29% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Doncaster 0–2 Stockport County | 0.22–3.38 | 1% · 5% · 94% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Huddersfield 4–1 Peterborough | 2.59–1.18 | 68% · 17% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Luton 2–1 Barnsley | 2.32–1.07 | 65% · 19% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Notts County 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.41–0.30 | 84% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Oxford United 2–1 Wigan | 1.99–0.54 | 72% · 19% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Stevenage 3–0 Plymouth | 1.32–0.97 | 45% · 28% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Reading 1–0 Leyton Orient | 1.49–2.85 | 18% · 16% · 66% | Won against the xG: Reading |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.