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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 36.3 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town 1–1 Oxford United | 3.38–0.81 | 85% · 10% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Mansfield Town had 85% |
| Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Luton | 1.45–1.54 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Close call, Milton Keynes Dons won |
| Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion | 2.58–0.91 | 73% · 16% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Peterborough had 73% |
| Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United | 2.25–2.19 | 41% · 20% · 39% | Close call, Cambridge United won |
| Bradford 2–0 Stevenage | 1.76–0.95 | 56% · 23% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Leicester 2–1 Doncaster | 1.76–0.60 | 65% · 22% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Leyton Orient 2–0 Blackpool | 2.20–0.81 | 69% · 18% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Plymouth 0–2 Huddersfield | 0.77–2.97 | 7% · 12% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Sheffield Wednesday 5–0 AFC Wimbledon | 2.60–0.37 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Stockport County 1–0 Bromley | 1.49–0.28 | 68% · 25% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Wigan 1–0 Reading | 1.16–1.99 | 22% · 22% · 57% | Won against the xG: Wigan |
| Wycombe 2–0 Notts County | 1.09–0.41 | 53% · 33% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.