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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 36.2 xG (0.97 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County 1–2 Oxford United | 0.56–1.35 | 15% · 28% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Plymouth 2–1 AFC Wimbledon | 1.72–0.98 | 55% · 24% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Bradford 0–0 Leyton Orient | 1.17–0.30 | 59% · 32% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Bradford had 59% |
| Cambridge United 1–0 Blackpool | 1.90–0.66 | 67% · 21% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion | 0.62–0.94 | 23% · 35% · 42% | Won against the xG: Doncaster |
| Huddersfield 2–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.87–1.75 | 42% · 22% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leicester 1–3 Peterborough | 2.60–1.70 | 57% · 18% · 24% | Won against the xG: Peterborough |
| Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley | 2.45–0.89 | 72% · 17% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Mansfield Town |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–5 Reading | 0.44–3.64 | 2% · 6% · 92% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Stevenage 1–0 Wigan | 2.08–0.19 | 83% · 15% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Stockport County 3–1 Barnsley | 1.91–1.58 | 46% · 22% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Wycombe 1–4 Luton | 1.96–2.93 | 25% · 17% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.