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11 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 35.7 xG (0.73 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bromley 3–1 Walsall | 2.01–1.79 | 44% · 21% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Cheltenham 1–4 Colchester | 1.73–1.29 | 48% · 24% · 29% | Won against the xG: Colchester |
| Crawley Town 0–0 Salford City | 1.23–2.35 | 19% · 19% · 62% | Draw against the xG: Salford City had 62% |
| Crewe 0–0 Cambridge United | 0.62–2.69 | 6% · 13% · 81% | Draw against the xG: Cambridge United had 81% |
| Gillingham 1–0 Shrewsbury | 0.31–1.82 | 6% · 20% · 75% | Won against the xG: Gillingham |
| Harrogate Town 1–2 Barnet | 3.03–0.98 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Won against the xG: Barnet |
| Notts County 1–1 Bristol Rovers | 1.53–1.53 | 38% · 24% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oldham 3–0 Accrington ST | 1.34–0.71 | 52% · 28% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Swindon Town 1–2 Chesterfield | 2.30–1.60 | 54% · 20% · 27% | Won against the xG: Chesterfield |
| Tranmere 1–1 Grimsby | 0.99–1.15 | 31% · 29% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Barrow 1–2 Newport County | 3.07–1.66 | 66% · 16% · 18% | Won against the xG: Newport County |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.