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10 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 27.0 xG (1.48 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby 4–0 Swindon Town | 1.76–0.40 | 71% · 21% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Milton Keynes Dons 3–0 Tranmere | 1.29–0.83 | 47% · 29% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Accrington ST 3–3 Crawley Town | 0.80–1.94 | 15% · 21% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Crawley Town had 64% |
| Barnet 6–2 Gillingham | 3.00–1.05 | 77% · 13% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Bristol Rovers 4–0 Cheltenham | 1.07–0.30 | 55% · 34% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Cambridge United 3–0 Barrow | 1.68–0.09 | 79% · 20% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Chesterfield 2–0 Crewe | 1.83–0.45 | 71% · 21% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Colchester 0–1 Notts County | 0.67–2.54 | 8% · 14% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Shrewsbury 2–2 Fleetwood Town | 1.40–0.94 | 48% · 27% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Newport County 3–2 Oldham | 3.88–1.09 | 85% · 9% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Newport County |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.