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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 36.4 xG (0.82 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bromley 0–0 Cambridge United | 2.73–1.49 | 64% · 17% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Bromley had 64% |
| Barrow 1–3 Walsall | 1.05–2.82 | 11% · 15% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington ST | 1.74–2.45 | 27% · 19% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Accrington ST had 54% |
| Crawley Town 0–0 Shrewsbury | 1.21–0.57 | 52% · 31% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Crawley Town had 52% |
| Crewe 1–3 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.66–1.32 | 19% · 29% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Fleetwood Town 1–1 Chesterfield | 2.06–0.56 | 73% · 18% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Fleetwood Town had 73% |
| Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby | 0.98–2.58 | 12% · 16% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Harrogate Town 1–0 Colchester | 1.55–1.50 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Harrogate Town |
| Notts County 1–2 Barnet | 1.28–2.25 | 21% · 20% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Oldham 1–2 Salford City | 0.53–2.73 | 5% · 12% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Tranmere 1–2 Bristol Rovers | 0.63–0.48 | 33% · 44% · 23% | Close call, Bristol Rovers won |
| Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County | 1.30–1.92 | 26% · 22% · 52% | Won against the xG: Cheltenham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.