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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 33.6 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester 3–0 Swindon Town | 2.00–0.26 | 79% · 17% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Bristol Rovers 3–1 Crawley Town | 1.88–2.25 | 33% · 20% · 47% | Close call, Bristol Rovers won |
| Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Bromley | 2.10–1.85 | 44% · 21% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Accrington ST 1–2 Fleetwood Town | 0.90–1.10 | 29% · 31% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Barnet 3–2 Barrow | 1.94–0.43 | 74% · 19% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Cambridge United 4–0 Notts County | 2.59–0.49 | 82% · 13% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Chesterfield 1–1 Tranmere | 0.95–1.86 | 19% · 22% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Tranmere had 59% |
| Grimsby 3–2 Crewe | 2.06–2.00 | 41% · 21% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Salford City 0–0 Gillingham | 0.87–0.18 | 52% · 41% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Salford City had 52% |
| Shrewsbury 1–0 Oldham | 0.48–1.68 | 10% · 23% · 67% | Won against the xG: Shrewsbury |
| Walsall 0–4 Cheltenham | 1.21–2.21 | 20% · 20% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Cheltenham |
| Newport County 2–1 Harrogate Town | 1.50–0.77 | 55% · 26% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Newport County |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.