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12 of 12 matches with xG: 33 goals from 28.9 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow 0–1 Chesterfield | 0.46–1.53 | 11% · 25% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Cheltenham 1–1 Cambridge United | 0.73–1.33 | 21% · 28% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Cambridge United had 51% |
| Crawley Town 0–2 Grimsby | 0.23–1.21 | 7% · 31% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Crewe 1–0 Salford City | 3.10–0.98 | 79% · 12% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Fleetwood Town 2–5 Barnet | 1.47–1.84 | 31% · 23% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Gillingham 2–0 Accrington ST | 0.87–0.64 | 39% · 36% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Harrogate Town 2–3 Bristol Rovers | 1.14–1.88 | 23% · 22% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Oldham 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons | 1.00–1.77 | 21% · 23% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Milton Keynes Dons had 55% |
| Swindon Town 2–1 Walsall | 0.51–1.57 | 12% · 25% · 64% | Won against the xG: Swindon Town |
| Tranmere 0–1 Colchester | 1.32–1.58 | 32% · 25% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Notts County 3–1 Newport County | 0.64–0.83 | 26% · 37% · 37% | Close call, Notts County won |
| Bromley 2–1 Shrewsbury | 1.65–0.57 | 64% · 24% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.