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12 of 12 matches with xG: 44 goals from 32.5 xG (1.35 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County 4–1 Chesterfield | 1.23–1.41 | 33% · 26% · 41% | Close call, Newport County won |
| Grimsby 5–2 York | 2.88–0.39 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Port Vale 4–2 Rochdale | 3.16–0.77 | 84% · 11% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Port Vale |
| Accrington ST 1–1 Northampton | 1.16–0.64 | 48% · 31% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| Colchester 1–3 Walsall | 2.73–2.20 | 50% · 18% · 32% | Close call, Walsall won |
| Crewe 1–1 Barnet | 0.86–0.51 | 42% · 38% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fleetwood Town 3–1 Bristol Rovers | 2.29–0.26 | 84% · 13% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Oldham 0–1 Crawley Town | 1.02–1.86 | 20% · 23% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Crawley Town |
| Salford City 2–1 Exeter City | 1.20–0.86 | 44% · 30% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Shrewsbury 1–2 Gillingham | 2.07–1.87 | 43% · 21% · 36% | Close call, Gillingham won |
| Swindon Town 2–1 Rotherham | 1.06–0.42 | 51% · 34% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Tranmere 3–1 Cheltenham | 1.08–0.58 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Tranmere |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.