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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 34.8 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers 0–0 Swindon Town | 2.02–1.83 | 43% · 21% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County | 1.38–1.38 | 37% · 25% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Cheltenham |
| Northampton 2–0 Colchester | 0.75–1.04 | 26% · 32% · 42% | Won against the xG: Northampton |
| Barnet 1–1 Oldham | 1.44–2.51 | 21% · 18% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Oldham had 61% |
| Chesterfield 5–1 Crewe | 1.87–0.49 | 71% · 20% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Crawley Town 1–1 Tranmere | 1.02–1.27 | 30% · 28% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Exeter City 2–1 Fleetwood Town | 1.26–0.90 | 45% · 29% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Exeter City |
| Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby | 0.57–2.94 | 5% · 11% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Rochdale 0–5 Accrington ST | 0.39–1.89 | 7% · 19% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Accrington ST |
| Rotherham 3–3 Shrewsbury | 1.48–2.24 | 25% · 20% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Shrewsbury had 55% |
| York 2–0 Port Vale | 1.21–0.71 | 48% · 30% · 22% | Win in line with xG for York |
| Walsall 2–4 Salford City | 1.79–2.37 | 29% · 20% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.