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12 of 12 matches with xG: 38 goals from 40.1 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet 1–3 Swindon Town | 3.42–1.46 | 75% · 13% · 12% | Won against the xG: Swindon Town |
| Bristol Rovers 1–2 Salford City | 1.69–0.70 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Won against the xG: Salford City |
| Cheltenham 4–2 Fleetwood Town | 1.91–2.38 | 32% · 19% · 49% | Close call, Cheltenham won |
| Chesterfield 1–1 Colchester | 2.23–0.72 | 72% · 18% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Chesterfield had 72% |
| Crawley Town 2–3 Shrewsbury | 1.42–1.78 | 31% · 23% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Exeter City 2–0 Crewe | 1.91–0.99 | 59% · 22% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Exeter City |
| Northampton 0–1 Tranmere | 1.48–0.84 | 52% · 26% · 21% | Won against the xG: Tranmere |
| Rochdale 2–2 Grimsby | 2.10–2.39 | 35% · 19% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rotherham 2–2 Newport County | 1.44–1.92 | 29% · 22% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Walsall 3–0 Oldham | 2.29–1.53 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| York 1–1 Accrington ST | 1.87–1.05 | 57% · 22% · 21% | Draw against the xG: York had 57% |
| Gillingham 1–1 Port Vale | 1.70–0.88 | 57% · 24% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Gillingham had 57% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.