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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 37.1 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town 2–0 Rotherham | 2.24–0.77 | 71% · 18% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Shrewsbury 1–0 Bristol Rovers | 1.66–0.53 | 65% · 23% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham | 2.71–0.31 | 87% · 10% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Accrington ST |
| Colchester 0–0 Exeter City | 1.22–0.30 | 60% · 31% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Colchester had 60% |
| Crewe 3–2 Rochdale | 2.00–1.67 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Grimsby 0–2 Northampton | 2.24–2.28 | 40% · 19% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Northampton |
| Newport County 1–1 York | 1.04–1.09 | 34% · 30% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oldham 4–1 Cheltenham | 2.16–1.83 | 46% · 20% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield | 0.41–0.49 | 23% · 49% · 28% | Close call, Port Vale won |
| Salford City 2–1 Crawley Town | 2.72–0.58 | 82% · 12% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall | 2.12–1.95 | 43% · 20% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Tranmere 1–2 Barnet | 1.37–3.43 | 11% · 12% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.