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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 38.6 xG (0.65 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham 0–0 Accrington ST | 0.40–1.12 | 13% · 33% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Accrington ST had 54% |
| Swindon Town 0–1 Crewe | 1.08–2.00 | 20% · 21% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Bristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet | 2.39–2.65 | 36% · 18% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Cheltenham 0–2 Salford City | 0.16–1.54 | 4% · 23% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Crawley Town 2–2 Chesterfield | 2.20–2.05 | 43% · 20% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fleetwood Town 1–1 Walsall | 3.17–1.25 | 75% · 13% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Fleetwood Town had 75% |
| Newport County 1–0 Colchester | 1.49–0.70 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Newport County |
| Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby | 3.06–0.83 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Port Vale |
| Rotherham 1–4 Gillingham | 1.52–2.05 | 29% · 21% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Shrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City | 1.96–1.01 | 59% · 22% · 19% | Won against the xG: Exeter City |
| Tranmere 1–1 Rochdale | 1.67–0.72 | 60% · 24% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Tranmere had 60% |
| York 1–1 Northampton | 1.91–1.71 | 43% · 22% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.