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9 of 12 matches with xG: 22 goals from 26.9 xG (0.82 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield 4–2 Tranmere | 3.89–0.53 | 93% · 5% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Accrington ST 2–0 Cheltenham | 3.60–0.19 | 95% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Accrington ST |
| Crewe 3–1 Bristol Rovers | 1.31–1.93 | 26% · 22% · 52% | Won against the xG: Crewe |
| Exeter City 1–0 Rotherham | 2.15–0.37 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Exeter City |
| Gillingham 0–0 Newport County | 0.31–1.25 | 9% · 30% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Newport County had 61% |
| Grimsby 1–2 Shrewsbury | 2.05–1.18 | 57% · 21% · 21% | Won against the xG: Shrewsbury |
| Rochdale 1–0 Swindon Town | 2.42–1.53 | 57% · 19% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Rochdale |
| Barnet 3–1 York | 1.58–0.71 | 58% · 25% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Northampton 0–1 Oldham | 1.11–0.84 | 42% · 31% · 27% | Close call, Oldham won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.