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12 of 12 matches with xG: 21 goals from 41.9 xG (0.50 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale 2–0 Oldham | 0.82–3.18 | 6% · 11% · 83% | Won against the xG: Rochdale |
| Walsall 2–0 Port Vale | 1.95–0.94 | 61% · 21% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Accrington ST 0–0 Newport County | 0.87–1.09 | 29% · 31% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Barnet 3–1 Fleetwood Town | 3.79–2.13 | 68% · 14% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Chesterfield 2–0 York | 3.33–0.51 | 89% · 8% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Colchester 1–1 Cheltenham | 0.52–1.81 | 10% · 21% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Cheltenham had 69% |
| Crewe 1–1 Shrewsbury | 1.61–3.10 | 17% · 15% · 67% | Draw against the xG: Shrewsbury had 67% |
| Exeter City 0–0 Tranmere | 1.00–0.77 | 40% · 33% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gillingham 3–0 Bristol Rovers | 2.29–0.88 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Grimsby 2–0 Crawley Town | 4.03–1.05 | 87% · 8% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Northampton 0–1 Rotherham | 1.33–1.63 | 31% · 24% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Rotherham |
| Salford City 1–0 Swindon Town | 2.11–1.13 | 60% · 21% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.