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12 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 38.3 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town 1–3 Cheltenham | 1.43–1.56 | 35% · 24% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Cheltenham |
| Grimsby 2–0 Bristol Rovers | 1.19–0.12 | 65% · 31% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Barnet 2–1 Accrington ST | 1.79–0.85 | 60% · 23% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Colchester 1–1 Crewe | 2.10–0.99 | 63% · 20% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Colchester had 63% |
| Gillingham 2–0 Tranmere | 1.53–1.24 | 44% · 25% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Newport County 1–1 Fleetwood Town | 2.04–1.13 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Newport County had 58% |
| Oldham 1–2 Chesterfield | 1.58–3.02 | 18% · 16% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Port Vale 1–0 Exeter City | 2.47–0.32 | 85% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Port Vale |
| Rotherham 3–3 Salford City | 3.60–1.78 | 71% · 13% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Rotherham had 71% |
| Shrewsbury 2–0 Northampton | 1.27–0.52 | 55% · 30% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Walsall 0–0 Rochdale | 3.03–0.62 | 85% · 10% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Walsall had 85% |
| York 4–0 Swindon Town | 3.08–1.01 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Win in line with xG for York |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.