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12 of 12 matches with xG: 33 goals from 39.8 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town 2–0 Shrewsbury | 1.00–0.86 | 38% · 32% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Salford City 1–0 Port Vale | 0.39–0.64 | 19% · 45% · 36% | Won against the xG: Salford City |
| Accrington ST 3–2 Crawley Town | 2.01–1.86 | 42% · 21% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Accrington ST |
| Bristol Rovers 1–0 Rotherham | 1.35–1.39 | 36% · 26% · 38% | Close call, Bristol Rovers won |
| Cheltenham 2–2 Grimsby | 1.22–2.25 | 20% · 20% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Grimsby had 61% |
| Chesterfield 3–3 Barnet | 2.15–3.50 | 21% · 15% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Barnet had 64% |
| Crewe 1–1 York | 1.89–3.39 | 19% · 15% · 67% | Draw against the xG: York had 67% |
| Exeter City 0–0 Walsall | 1.94–0.74 | 66% · 21% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Exeter City had 66% |
| Northampton 1–0 Newport County | 0.63–0.51 | 32% · 43% · 25% | Close call, Northampton won |
| Rochdale 1–4 Gillingham | 0.76–1.39 | 20% · 28% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Swindon Town 3–1 Colchester | 2.34–2.27 | 42% · 19% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Tranmere 2–0 Oldham | 1.83–3.48 | 17% · 14% · 69% | Won against the xG: Tranmere |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.