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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 33.6 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.39–0.50 | 59% · 28% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Fulham 0–3 Brentford | 0.46–3.93 | 2% · 5% · 94% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Liverpool 3–1 Bournemouth | 3.08–1.29 | 73% · 14% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Wolves 1–4 Brighton | 2.14–2.22 | 39% · 20% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Tottenham 2–0 Manchester United | 1.74–2.07 | 33% · 21% · 46% | Close call, Tottenham won |
| Manchester City 1–0 Newcastle | 1.08–0.29 | 56% · 34% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Aston Villa 4–0 Everton | 3.00–0.63 | 84% · 11% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| West Ham 3–1 Chelsea | 1.80–2.49 | 28% · 19% · 53% | Won against the xG: West Ham |
| Crystal Palace 0–1 Arsenal | 1.01–2.02 | 18% · 21% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Luton 1–2 Burnley | 1.34–1.11 | 42% · 27% · 31% | Close call, Burnley won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.