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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 32.7 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea 3–0 Luton | 2.27–0.44 | 79% · 15% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Bournemouth 0–2 Tottenham | 0.67–2.06 | 11% · 19% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Arsenal 2–2 Fulham | 3.20–0.56 | 88% · 9% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Arsenal had 88% |
| Brentford 1–1 Crystal Palace | 0.97–0.80 | 38% · 33% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Everton 0–1 Wolves | 1.34–1.08 | 43% · 27% · 30% | Close call, Wolves won |
| Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest | 2.83–1.21 | 71% · 15% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Brighton 1–3 West Ham | 1.48–3.23 | 14% · 14% · 72% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Burnley 1–3 Aston Villa | 0.73–2.70 | 8% · 14% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Sheffield Utd 1–2 Manchester City | 0.67–3.60 | 3% · 7% · 89% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Newcastle 1–2 Liverpool | 1.99–0.88 | 63% · 21% · 16% | Won against the xG: Liverpool |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.