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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 31.3 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool 4–1 Luton | 3.32–0.92 | 83% · 11% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest | 3.57–2.56 | 58% · 15% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Brighton 1–1 Everton | 1.41–0.29 | 66% · 27% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Brighton had 66% |
| Crystal Palace 3–0 Burnley | 2.40–0.08 | 89% · 10% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Manchester United 1–2 Fulham | 1.72–1.20 | 50% · 24% · 27% | Won against the xG: Fulham |
| Bournemouth 0–1 Manchester City | 0.93–1.64 | 21% · 25% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Arsenal 4–1 Newcastle | 2.86–0.16 | 92% · 7% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Wolves 1–0 Sheffield Utd | 1.31–0.58 | 55% · 29% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| West Ham 4–2 Brentford | 1.69–0.91 | 56% · 24% · 20% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Chelsea 2–0 Tottenham | 2.14–1.61 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.