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10 of 10 matches with xG: 36 goals from 31.5 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford 2–2 Chelsea | 1.83–1.81 | 40% · 22% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Everton 1–3 West Ham | 2.73–1.87 | 56% · 18% · 26% | Won against the xG: West Ham |
| Fulham 3–0 Brighton | 1.30–1.34 | 36% · 26% · 38% | Close call, Fulham won |
| Newcastle 3–0 Wolves | 2.19–0.80 | 69% · 19% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Nottingham Forest 0–1 Liverpool | 0.97–2.07 | 17% · 20% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Tottenham 3–1 Crystal Palace | 1.91–0.32 | 76% · 18% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Luton 2–3 Aston Villa | 1.77–1.95 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Burnley 0–2 Bournemouth | 1.49–1.12 | 46% · 26% · 28% | Won against the xG: Bournemouth |
| Manchester City 3–1 Manchester United | 3.33–0.25 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Sheffield Utd 0–6 Arsenal | 0.23–2.24 | 3% · 13% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.