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10 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 27.1 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves 1–3 Liverpool | 0.63–2.52 | 7% · 14% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Aston Villa 3–1 Crystal Palace | 3.21–1.17 | 77% · 13% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Fulham 1–0 Luton | 0.96–1.10 | 31% · 30% · 39% | Close call, Fulham won |
| Manchester United 1–3 Brighton | 0.96–1.70 | 21% · 24% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Tottenham 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 2.12–0.66 | 71% · 18% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| West Ham 1–3 Manchester City | 0.94–3.63 | 6% · 9% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Newcastle 1–0 Brentford | 1.44–0.50 | 60% · 27% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Bournemouth 0–0 Chelsea | 1.04–1.85 | 21% · 23% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Chelsea had 56% |
| Everton 0–1 Arsenal | 0.34–1.02 | 12% · 35% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley | 0.71–0.55 | 35% · 41% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.