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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 28.9 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 0–0 Fulham | 0.30–0.59 | 16% · 49% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Luton 1–1 Wolves | 2.17–0.59 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Luton had 74% |
| Manchester City 2–0 Nottingham Forest | 1.33–1.03 | 44% · 28% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Brentford 1–3 Everton | 1.03–1.90 | 20% · 22% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Burnley 0–1 Manchester United | 1.09–0.97 | 38% · 30% · 32% | Close call, Manchester United won |
| Arsenal 2–2 Tottenham | 2.03–1.46 | 51% · 21% · 28% | Draw against the xG: Arsenal had 51% |
| Brighton 3–1 Bournemouth | 1.85–1.14 | 54% · 23% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Chelsea 0–1 Aston Villa | 1.33–1.07 | 43% · 27% · 30% | Close call, Aston Villa won |
| Liverpool 3–1 West Ham | 3.03–1.10 | 76% · 13% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Sheffield Utd 0–8 Newcastle | 0.94–3.92 | 5% · 8% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.