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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 30.2 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 6–1 Brighton | 1.58–1.71 | 36% · 23% · 41% | Close call, Aston Villa won |
| Bournemouth 0–4 Arsenal | 0.65–3.43 | 4% · 8% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Everton 1–2 Luton | 2.90–0.89 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Won against the xG: Luton |
| Manchester United 0–1 Crystal Palace | 1.30–0.90 | 46% · 28% · 26% | Won against the xG: Crystal Palace |
| Newcastle 2–0 Burnley | 3.19–0.65 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| West Ham 2–0 Sheffield Utd | 2.14–1.07 | 62% · 20% · 18% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Wolves 2–1 Manchester City | 0.47–0.87 | 19% · 38% · 43% | Won against the xG: Wolves |
| Tottenham 2–1 Liverpool | 2.23–1.31 | 58% · 20% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Nottingham Forest 1–1 Brentford | 0.46–1.66 | 10% · 23% · 67% | Draw against the xG: Brentford had 67% |
| Fulham 0–2 Chelsea | 1.09–1.70 | 24% · 24% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.