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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 27.5 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton 0–1 Tottenham | 0.76–1.96 | 14% · 21% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Burnley 1–4 Chelsea | 0.76–1.86 | 15% · 22% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Everton 3–0 Bournemouth | 2.49–0.69 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Fulham 3–1 Sheffield Utd | 2.21–0.57 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Manchester United 2–1 Brentford | 1.43–0.95 | 48% · 27% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Crystal Palace 0–0 Nottingham Forest | 0.81–1.05 | 28% · 32% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Brighton 2–2 Liverpool | 2.32–2.35 | 40% · 19% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Ham 2–2 Newcastle | 1.16–2.01 | 22% · 21% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Newcastle had 57% |
| Wolves 1–1 Aston Villa | 1.68–1.61 | 40% · 23% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Arsenal 1–0 Manchester City | 0.39–0.48 | 22% · 50% · 28% | Close call, Arsenal won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.