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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 30.1 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool 2–0 Everton | 2.23–0.13 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Bournemouth 1–2 Wolves | 0.63–2.35 | 8% · 16% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| Brentford 3–0 Burnley | 3.24–1.14 | 78% · 12% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Manchester City 2–1 Brighton | 0.75–0.83 | 30% · 36% · 35% | Close call, Manchester City won |
| Newcastle 4–0 Crystal Palace | 2.39–1.21 | 64% · 19% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Nottingham Forest 2–2 Luton | 2.97–1.71 | 63% · 16% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Nottingham Forest had 63% |
| Chelsea 2–2 Arsenal | 1.35–0.99 | 45% · 28% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Utd 1–2 Manchester United | 1.42–1.10 | 44% · 26% · 29% | Won against the xG: Manchester United |
| Aston Villa 4–1 West Ham | 1.94–1.16 | 56% · 22% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Tottenham 2–0 Fulham | 1.53–1.03 | 49% · 26% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.